All the experts pick the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Atlanta Hawks in a best of seven series, especially when the Cavs field the league’s newest MVP – LeBron James. Unfortunately, Cleveland beat Atlanta 3 of 4 times during the regular season, but it’s the playoffs and miracles do happen, just ask LeBron James who single handedly beat the Detroit Pistons two (2) seasons ago in game seven of the conference finals. If the Birds can hang around and survive the Cavs’ initial onslaught, then they may have a chance to pull the upset and shock the world!
Let's compare team stats:
Cavaliers: 100.3 PPG, 42.2 RPG, 20.3 APG, 46.824 FG%, 75.696 FT%, and 0.393 3P%
Hawks: 98.1 PPG, 40.0 RPG, 20.2 APG, 45.822 FG%, 73.717 FT%, and 0.366 3P%
Based on the raw numbers, the advantage clearly goes to Cleveland as their stats are higher in every category. However, there may be hope for the Hawks in individual match ups, so let’s compare the starting five (5):
Mo Williams, Point Guard, 6’1, 190 17.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.1 APG
Mike Bibby, Point Guard, 6’2, 195lbs, 14.9 PPG, 5.0 APG, 1.2 SPG
Point Guard advantage is a toss up. Williams and Bibby are similarly matched and sized; however, Bibby has had a lights out playoffs and he has the experience.
Delonte West: Shooting Guard, 6’3, 180lbs, 11.7 PPG, 3.5 APG, 0.399 3P%
Joe Johnson, Shooting Guard, 6’7, 240lbs, 21.4 PPG, 5.8 APG, 0.360 3P%
Shooting Guard advantage goes to the Hawks as long as Joe Johnson plays like the all-star that he is and scores at will and gets other player's involved.
LeBron James, Small Forward, 6’8, 250lbs, 28.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 7.2 APG
Marvin Williams, Small Forward, 6’9, 240lbs, 13.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.3 APG
Small Forward advantage and overall X-Factor goes to the Cavs as LeBron James is arguably the best player in the NBA. The Hawks don't have any players who match up with LeBron and if someone doesn't step up, he's capable of beating Atlanta with little help from his teammates.
Anderson Varejao, Power Forward, 6’11, 260lbs, 8.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 0.8 BPG
Josh Smith, Power Forward, 6’9, 240lbs, 15.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.6 BPG
Small Forward advantage goes to the Birds as Josh Smith has the potential to score, rebound, and block shots. He's Atlanta's X-Factor. Unfortunately, you never know which Smith will show up - the erratic three-point jump shooter or the instant highlight reel dunker and shot blocker.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Center, 7’3, 260, 12.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.3 BPG
Al Horford, Center, 6’10, 245lbs, 11.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG
Center advantage goes to Cleveland as Zydrunas Ilgausakas is an experience center with size who can rebound and shot the 10-15 foot jumper consistantly. Additionally, Horford's playing hurt, but backup center ZaZa Pachulia's hard nose play could affect the game.
The bottom-line:
The Atlanta Hawks are the underdogs and there’s probably not a person on the planet that believes the Birds have an outside chance of beating the Cavs in a best of seven series. Most “experts” predict that Cleveland will either sweep Atlanta or beat them in five (5) games. As an optimistic and perhaps unrealistic fan, I believe the Hawks do have an outside chance of pulling an upset. First, the Birds have to make LeBron’s supporting cast beat them and not just LeBron. I not completely sold that the Cleveland’s other four (4) players are any better than any of Atlanta’s players. Second, the Hawks have to play consistent help defense on LeBron because he’s too good for single coverage. Third, Atlanta has to continue to hit the open man and make the extra pass. Fourth, Josh Smith has to work his inside game by driving to the basket and challenging the shots of the Cavs’ players. Fifth, Joe Johnson has to play out his mind.
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